While Rockstar has yet to announce a release date for GTA 5, it seems like common opinion was that it would release in the hotly contested and high consumer spending Fall of 2012.

Games industry analyst Arvind Bhatia disagrees.

Rockstar dropped the first trailer for Grand Theft Auto 5 back in November of 2011, and they have a history of releasing games one year after the first trailer drops.  However, Bhatia argues that Rockstar also has a history of releasing games in the Spring, Where GTA 4, Red Dead Redemption, and LA Noire all found success.  For that reason, he believes that GTA 5 will drop in March of 2013.

There are some other advantages to a March release date as well.  The 2012 Fall lineup is very crowded already with a new Call of Duty game (likely Black Ops 2), Assassin’s Creed 3, and Halo 4 all set to hit the shelves in that window.  There is more money to go around during the holidays but there is also a limit to how much it can be divided up.  Grand Theft Auto has never gone head to head with a major player like Call of Duty.  March would also give the Wii U some time to grow its install base such that Rockstar would be selling to a larger market.

March certainly worked out well for Mass Effect 3 this year, and GTA 5 will be a much more mainstream game.